ENERGY-FEATURE:

Don't expect Africa to take the lead on emissions - the West must show the way

open | 28 October, 2006

JOHANNESBURG. Africa has seen unprecedented growth driven by high commodity prices during the past few years. It is a growth that is fueled by the growth in China and analysts saying, over and over again like a mantra, that higher commodity prices are therefore here to stay.

If it is a continuous party, or if prices will drop as dramatically as they surged remains to be seen. For now the fact is that Africa, for the first time since their independences, has started to actually profit from its commodities and raw material – oil, gold, copper and diamonds are more sought after than ever.

Therefore, there is surplus money around – a fundamental necessity if an economy to grow.

With it there are new threats and fears. If Africa would follow the same path, as the Western world carbon monoxide emissions will increase drastically and increase the hothouse effect even more. Something that the World as a whole cannot really manage.

Carbon trading schemes, tax incentives, subsidies and aid will play a role in steering Africa towards environmentally correct behaviour - but in the end each country will be tempted to use up its respective resources. And most of the time they tend to release carbon monoxide.

In South Africa, Africa's largest economy by far, the coal fired power stations are already generating more than 90 percent of the country’s electricity.

By all accounts there is a large risk that South Africa will spit out even more omissions in the future, as there are plans to double the coal power capacity.

While most people agree that this is not a good idea from an environmental point of view, the fact is that South Africa desperately needs to increase its capacity, not the least due to the growth of the economy.

The country’s economy is growing by more than five percent, the highest level since the early Eighties.

The country is also planning to build some six nuclear power stations. The numbers could come up or down depending on other available sources and how public opinion is reacting to the various options.

The best bet, from an omission- if not necessarily from an environmental point of view, is hydropower.

South Africa already sources a few percent of its need from the Cahora Bassa hydro power station in Mozambique.

The percentage could increase further when Cahora Bassa II, out for tender at the moment, and the planned electric grid linking up DR Congo’s Inga power station – where there are massive developments planned – and new water power from Angola is up and running. But that is still some ten to 15 years ahead.

T

hen there are small scale, alternative sources. There is some solar power in place, mainly to heat up houses, in South Africa and Southern Africa. But it is miniscule.

The same thing with wind power. There are a few wind power stations in South Africa’s Western Cape province. But it is not taken very seriously.

More as a supplement to the national electricity utility Eskom's power.

In other countries in Sub-Sahara, such as Uganda and Tanzania electricity is even scarcer. In order to catch up they are building small oil- and gas plants.

South Africa, as well as a number of other Sub-Saharan countries, such as Senegal and Togo, is also looking seriously at ethanol solutions. South Africa plans to build half a dozen ethanol-plants; the first one is under construction.

The threat is clear. South Africa and in particular the rest of the continent do not feel they can afford the luxury to hold back on developing the energy resources they have. They are likely to go for conventional options, as those are the cheapest short term and as electricity is scarce.

The rhetorical question is, why should poor Africans pay a higher price and be more responsible than the West is?

As long as the West doesn’t change its tune there is little chance that Africa and other developing regions are going to change. Simply, there must make economic sense to choose energy sources that are less damaging for the environment and the atmosphere.

For now, we have to expect that Africa will put more pressure on the environment over the next ten years, at least until good environmental behavior is rewarded, e.g. the traffic in South Africa is growing by seven percent annually.

It means that the Worlds temperature will increase more – if not the West is cutting back dramatically. It is the price the World will pay when Africa – as well as China and India – is knocking on the global consumers society’s door.